Philadelphia & Reading
P&R was another company trading at less than the value of its assets and inventory. The company mainly operated in coal mining, a declining industry due to alternative fuel sources and government regulations.
This story had a different ending that Cleveland Worsted Mills, though. As the business declined, other investors, including Ben Graham, purchased large amounts of shares. The group managed to get a few seats on the board of directors and influence the company to stop mining for coal.
After liquidating much of the assets and inventory, P&R started buying other, unrelated businesses such as the Fruit of the Loom brand that is now owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Less than 10 years after Buffett bought his first shares, the company had completely transformed from a commodity business to a conglomerate led by investors skilled in capital allocation. Over that decade, the stock price compounded at around 19% annually.
While Buffett himself did not have much influence in the capital allocation decisions, he learned that having control of a company was the best way to create value. In many ways, P&R’s transformation from a company in secular decline to an M&A machine created the template Buffett would later use with Berkshire Hathaway.
American Express
American Express accounted for around 30% of the partnership’s assets in 1966. Since Buffett had bought the stock in 1964, the stock had gone up by 30% and 39.2% in the following two years before delivering a monster 89% return in 1966. In other words, it was a massive contributor to the partnership’s overall returns.
American Express was more or less the definition of a wonderful company temporarily available at a fair price.
For close to a century, the company had built a reputation as a reliable financial institution, and its credit card launched in 1958 was by far the most popular despite being more expensive than Diner’s Club and other competitors. However, investors feared that this reputation had been severely handicapped after the company’s involvement in the “salad oil” scandal in the early 1960s.
In short, American Express fell victim to fraud that uncovered a lack of oversight and integrity among some of its employees. It was also uncertain how much the settlement would end up costing shareholders. As the story goes, Buffett visited restaurants and talked to consumers to determine if the scandal had tarnished the brand. What he found was that, despite the stock price selling off, customers did not seem to care.
When Buffett bought the stock at around 15x earnings in 1964, it was one of the more expensive purchases based on valuation multiples he made in the partnership years. However, once he became comfortable with the expected outcome of the scandal, the valuation was quite appealing for what was a highly competitively advantaged company.
American Express’ fundamentals grew much faster than the market expected in the following years, and the number of cards outstanding continued to grow double-digits despite price increases. The scandal had been a big deal on Wall Street and in financial media, but it clearly did not impact how consumers viewed the company. There is an important lesson in there that many of the day-to-day headlines are irrelevant over the long run.
Lastly, it is interesting that the 10x earnings Buffett paid for Hochschild Kohn turned out to be expensive while the 15x earnings American Express traded at in 1964 was a bargain price. Instead of waiting for the fraud case to settle, Buffett made himself comfortable with the range of possible outcomes and invested heavily once he realized most of the downside was protected.