JD.com (JD) Fair Value: $51

Q: What is JD.com's fair value?

Under this scenario, JD.com (JD) has a fair entry price of $51. This is the maximum you'd pay today to achieve your 10% target return over 5 years, given the growth assumptions. Different assumptions give different results, so use the calculator to model your own scenarios.

Q: Is JD undervalued right now?

Under these assumptions, JD.com could be undervalued. The fair entry price ($51) is 70% above $30.00. If growth meets expectations, buying at $30.00 would yield 22.3%/yr. However, DCF doesn't predict what will happen. It shows what would need to happen for your target return. Always model multiple scenarios: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic.

Fair value is $51 per share based on a 5-year DCF projection, 70% upside from the current price of $30.00.

Updated January 22, 2026 · Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Current Price

$30.00

Jan 22 close

Fair Entry Price

$51

for 10% annual return

Projected Price

$79

by Jan 2031

Your CAGR

22.3%

if bought today

Operating Income grows from $2.5B → $3.8B over 5 years (9% → 8.6% annually)
How we calculated this

Price Projection

Assumptions Behind This Projection

Metric

Operating Income

Starting Growth

9%/yr

Growth Decay

1%/yr

Discount Rate

10%/yr

Projection Period

5 years

Terminal Multiple

30x

Shares Change

0%/yr

Dividend Growth

0%/yr

Adjust Growth Rate

See how assumptions change fair value

Growth

Fair Value

$51

Conservative Optimistic

Want to adjust discount rate, projection period, and more?

Try the full DCF calculator

3 DCF analyses per week with a free account

Operating Income History & Projections

Historical data shows past performance. The green line projects forward from 9% growth, declining to 8.6% by year 5.

Current Operating Income

$2.5B

Projected 2031

$3.8B

This projection uses Operating Income. In the full calculator, you can project on 7 different metrics including EBITDA, Earnings, Operating Cash Flow, and more.

Try These Stocks Free

Full DCF analysis with no account required, no limits.

GOOG

Alphabet

Try free →

JPM

JPMorgan

Try free →

NVDA

NVIDIA

Try free →

Realty Income

Try free →

RY.TO

Royal Bank

Try free →

Want to analyze any stock?

Create a free account for 3 fair value analyses per week on 130,000+ stocks across 70+ exchanges.

Create Free Account

How We Calculate Fair Value

DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) answers: "If this company keeps growing, what's the most I should pay today?"

Project future earnings

We take JD.com's current Operating Income ($2.5B) and compound it at 9%/yr for 5 years. Growth decays by 1% each year (high growth rarely lasts forever). This growth rate is based on historical averages, and you can adjust it in the calculator.

Estimate future stock price

The projected Operating Income ($3.8B) divided by future shares (1.4B) gives us Operating Income per share. Multiply by a 30x valuation multiple = $79 stock price in 2031. Plus $2.5 in dividends over 5 years.

Discount to today's value

$79 in 5 years isn't worth $79 today. We discount it back at 10%/yr (your required return). We also add the present value of expected dividends over the period. Result: $51 fair entry price. This is the most you should pay today for your target return.

The Full Calculation (for the investing nerds)

Step 1: Project Operating Income

The most recent Operating Income is $2.5B
We project this out 5 years with 9% initial growth and 1% decay rate
Growth decay means the growth rate shrinks each year: Year 1 grows at 9%, then the rate is multiplied by (1 - 1/100) each subsequent year
After 5 years of decaying growth, Operating Income reaches $3.8B

Step 2: Project Diluted Shares Outstanding

Current shares outstanding: 1.4B
Shares change at 0%/yr (dilution increases share count)
After 5 years: 1.4B shares

Step 3: Calculate Future Stock Price

Formula: (Future Operating Income ÷ Future Shares) × Price Ratio
Calculation: ($3.8B ÷ 1.4B) × 30 = $79

Step 4: Project Future Dividends

Current dividend per share: $0.5
Dividend growth rate: 0%/yr
Total dividends over 5 years: $2.5

Step 5: Discount to Present Value

Future stock price: $79 + $2.5 dividends = $82 total
Discount rate (your required return): 10%/yr
Discounting back 5 years: $51 fair value today

JD trades at $30.00. Buying at that price would yield 22.3% annual return, which is above your 10% target.

Don't agree with these assumptions? That's the point. Use the calculator above to plug in your own growth rate, discount rate, and time horizon. More conservative? Lower the growth rate. Want a bigger safety margin? Increase the discount rate.

The Most Configurable DCF Calculator

Model any scenario across 130,000+ stocks worldwide.

7 Projection Metrics

Free Cash Flow, EBITDA, Earnings, EBIT, Operating Cash Flow, Operating Income, or Book Value. Pick what matters for your analysis.

130,000+ Stocks, 70+ Markets

Not just US stocks. Analyze companies from exchanges worldwide: Canada, UK, Europe, Asia, and more.

Up to 35 Years of Data

View up to 35 years of historical financials from official filings to inform your growth assumptions.

Full Control

Growth decay, share buybacks/dilution, dividend modeling, custom discount rates, 1-10 year projections. Every lever at your fingertips.

3 DCF analyses per week with a free account.

Try the Full Calculator Create Free Account →

More Fair Value Analyses

Explore DCF valuations for other popular stocks.

AAPL

Apple

View fair value →

ADBE

Adobe

View fair value →

GOOG

Google

View fair value →

MSFT

Microsoft

View fair value →

PYPL

PayPal

View fair value →

TSLA

Tesla

View fair value →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is JD.com's fair value?

Under this scenario, JD.com (JD) has a fair entry price of $51. This is the maximum you'd pay today to achieve your 10% target return over 5 years, given the growth assumptions. Different assumptions give different results, so use the calculator to model your own scenarios.

Is JD undervalued right now?

Under these assumptions, JD.com could be undervalued. The fair entry price ($51) is 70% above $30.00. If growth meets expectations, buying at $30.00 would yield 22.3%/yr. However, DCF doesn't predict what will happen. It shows what would need to happen for your target return. Always model multiple scenarios: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic.

Why do investors use DCF analysis?

DCF helps investors determine what a stock is truly worth based on future earnings potential, rather than relying on market sentiment or analyst opinions. It answers: "Given my expectations for this company's growth, what's the maximum price I should pay today to achieve my target return?" Value investors like Warren Buffett use DCF-style thinking to find stocks trading below their intrinsic value.

How accurate is DCF analysis?

DCF is a framework for thinking about value, not a crystal ball. Small changes in growth rate or discount rate can dramatically change the result. That's actually the point: it helps you understand how sensitive a stock's value is to different scenarios. Run bull, bear, and base cases to see the range of possibilities.

What makes Stock Unlock's calculator different?

Our calculator pre-fills the latest financials so you can adjust every assumption and project forward 1-10 years. Choose from 7 valuation metrics: Free Cash Flow, Operating Cash Flow, Earnings, EBITDA, EBIT, Operating Income, or Book Value. Up to 35 years of historical data helps inform your growth rates. The model handles share dilution/buybacks and dividends automatically. Analyze any of 130,000+ stocks across 70+ global exchanges.

What discount rate should I use?

The discount rate is your required annual return. Most individual investors use 10%, which represents the historical average stock market return. If you want higher returns (to compensate for more risk), use a higher rate like 12-15%. Lower rates (8%) give higher fair values but require less upside. The discount rate isn't about the company. It's about your minimum acceptable return.

What's the difference between fair value and price target?

Analyst price targets predict where the stock price will go (usually 12 months out). DCF fair value tells you what to pay today to achieve a specific return over time. Price targets are often influenced by market sentiment; fair value is based purely on financial projections. Both are estimates, and neither is guaranteed.

Why use Operating Income instead of other metrics?

Different metrics suit different companies. We chose Operating Income for JD.com as the primary measure to project. Our calculator lets you switch between Free Cash Flow, Earnings, EBITDA, and other metrics to see how the choice affects fair value. Different metrics can give very different results.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. DCF estimates depend on assumptions that may not reflect actual performance. Do your own research. Stock Unlock is not a brokerage.

View full JD stock profile →